by Atlee Valentine Pope
What is the outlook for next year’s economic growth? It's the $64,000 question.
In the United States, some economists predict slow, single-digit GDP growth for 2012. Others, however, suggest the United States will face more severe headwinds as credit tightens due to the worsening European sovereign debt crisis. These economists believe the European banks’ credit squeeze on companies will spill across the continent and ultimately affect businesses all around the world. Recently, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development projected the U.S. economy would grow at a 2-percent rate next year, down from its earlier forecast of 3.1 percent due to the European malaise.
And yet, throughout the summer and into the fall of 2011, finance ministers from countries that use the Euro currency have scrambled to approve more loans, bolster bailout funds and manage to temporarily calm the financial markets. Meanwhile, in the United States, Black Friday, which traditionally kicks off the holiday shopping season, registered an increase in retail sales over recent years, and Cyber Monday’s 2011’s online sales increased 20 percent over Cyber Monday in 2010.
These observations point to a tremendous amount of conflicting, perplexing data that sheds little light on the answer to the question: What should we expect in 2012? More importantly, what should suppliers to the natural products industry expect in 2012? Will next year usher in a doom-and-gloom scenario, or simply be business as usual?
Fundamental social-economic trends that have fueled growth in the natural products industry—concerns over food safety, the increasingly high cost of health care and an aging population of Baby Boomers–remain prevalent.
Nevertheless, many still ask whether increased consumer interest in organically grown products will continue, or if the natural nutrition industry can continue to outperform the GDP growth and avoid the pitfalls of slower growth or a recession as it did in 2009 and 2010.
While the 2012 growth outlook remains difficult to forecast, we can confidently predict one trend—2012 will be a year of great uncertainty. And as all shrewd business executives understand, great uncertainty demands businesses manage this uncertainty and the potential risk with solid business plans.
